As Kenyans are keen watching the events unfolding in Addis Ababa from 14 to 16 February, it is good to note that even in 2017, Kenya almost brought this seat home through Amb. Amina Mohammed then Foreign Affairs CS serving Uhuru Kenyatta Government.
Kenya needs to draw lessons from 2017 vote when Kenya’s Amina Mohamed lost to Faki Moussa. If there’s one thing African Union politics teaches, it is that nothing is certain until the last vote is counted — and even then, one should expect surprises.
Kenya’s 2017 campaign for Amina Mohamed suffered a similar fate. Despite heavy lobbying, Amina lost to Chad’s Moussa Faki in a bruising race that exposed regional fractures and left Nairobi licking its wounds.
One of the most painful lessons was that public endorsements rarely translate into real votes in the secret ballot.
Kenya learned that the hard way when neighbours like Tanzania, Uganda, and even Burundi allegedly failed to back Amina when it mattered most.
It recorded that, the government of Kenya then spent almost 4m USD to campaign for Amina. Despite all these efforts, Amina narrowly lost to Mousa Faki Malamat the then Foreign Affairs Minister of Chad.
The 7 rounds-hotly-contested vote hyped Kenya’s hope but a last minute change of agenda and refusal of some East African countries undermined Kenya’s candidate for the position of chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC). Uganda, South Sudan, Djibouti, and Burundi refused to vote for Kenya.
During earlier lobbying, Amina Mohammed had been endorsed by East African Countries but these pledges were not honoured at the ballot.
Uganda, Djibouti and Burundi voted for Kenya in Round 1 helping Amina to ganner
In Round 2, Chad improved and scored 21 votes. Kenya improved with only vote.
Kenya gained momentum in Round 4 harvesting 26 against Chad 25 after other candidates were compelled to drop out.
When the vote entered Round 5, one country abstained, but Kenya won with 27 votes against Chad 26.
The vote entered Round 6, and Chad gained again with 28 votes against Kenya 25.
Amina Mohammed had technically been defeated and Faki went ahead to garner 38 votes when he ran alone in the 7th round. And the winner was Mousa Faki Malamat from Chad. Very humiliating for Kenya.
The entire SADC stayed away from the vote in protest since their candidate from Botswana didn’t make any progress in the preliminary rounds.
SADC wanted one more term since the current occupant then, Nkosozana Dlamini Zuma had chosen not to run for a second term.
In this 2025, with SADC having their Candidate from Madagascar, they are likely to mess this vote once again. Already a circular has been sent to all SADC countries from SADC secretariat requesting SADC members to stand with their Madagascar candidate Richard Randriamandrato.
If Richard will not make any progress just like the Botswana Candidate in 2017, SADC with 16 votes is likely to abstain from either voting Kenya’s Raila Odinga or Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf.
